Guoabong Investment：This year's Indian gold demand will remain strong, and the price of gold is expected to rise to $ 2,500

Huitong Finance APP News -Australian and New Bank commodity strategist Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said in a recent report that they expect that India's gold demand this year is strong, which may continue to support gold prices in the second half of this year.

Analysts said in the report: "Our calculation shows that every 1%increase in gold prices, gold demand often decreases by 0.6%. Price rise is still inhibiting demand, but sensitivity has declined in the past yearGuoabong Investment. Although the price of gold in 2023It has risen by more than 10%, but the consumer demand remains at a strong level of 760 tons, a slight decrease of 2%year-on-year.

Australia and New Bank added that in the first five months of this year, India's gold imports increased by 26%year -on -year to 230 tons.

Kumari and Hynes said the structural change of the Indian economy is helping to support physical gold demand, although the price of gold is still high.Because India's gold demand is mainly driven by physical demand, especially jewelry demand, rising per capita income will be a long -term key driver.The country is at the cosmetic routine of economic expansionGuoabong Wealth Management. It is expected that the per capita income will increase by more than 60%by 2030 to $ 4,000.There are also changes in other population, such as the increase in urbanization and middle -income groups and the decline in dependence. These changes may offset any negative effects of high gold prices.

At the same time, while promoting the recent demand, the strong monsoon season between June and September will mean that farmers will see higher crop output and have more money to buy more gold.

Australia and New Bank said that people are increasingly expected that the government will begin to reduce the cost of gold, which will help reduce some costs, which will also help improve consumer demand.

In addition, the Central Bank of India has also begun to diversify its foreign exchange reserves to buy more gold.The central bank purchased 37 tons of gold in the first half of this year.

Kumari and Hynes pointed out: "The Bank of India has become the second largest gold buyer this year. The purchase volume in the first half of the year means that if the purchase speed continues, the total purchase volume this year may reach more than 70 tons."

In this environment, as India and other Asian powers continue to play an important role in the gold market, Kumari and Hynes said they expect that the price of gold will rise to $ 2,500 per ounce by the end of this year.

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8:44, July 16, Beijing time, $ 2420.14/ounce in spot gold

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