Ahmedabad Investment：Russia maintains lead as India's top oil supplier, commanding over 35% of imports despite recent slowdown

New Delhi: holds the lead as 's top supplier, with over 35% share in the nation's total crude imports despite a recent decline in purchases, according to S&P Global Commodity InsightsAhmedabad Investment. The dip, observed in the latter months of 2023 compared to the first half of the year, has been influenced by increased oil inflows from the , weather disruptions at Russian ports, extensive refinery maintenance, and tighter regulations on Russian oil-laden ships.New Delhi Stock Exchange

Industry forecasts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, however, suggest a likely rebound in Russian crude imports to India in the upcoming months as domestic refineries ramp up post-maintenance activities to cater to the robust refining margins and the anticipated demand surge.

The final quarter of 2023 saw a rise in crude imports from major Middle Eastern sources such as Iraq and , a trend that is projected to extend into the first quarter of 2024Chennai Investment. This aligns with the fulfillment of yearly term commitments by India’s public sector refiners, which usually experience a 10% fluctuation against their contracted quantities with suppliers.Mumbai Investment

October's heightened maintenance led to a contraction in India's crude imports, with refinery CDU maintenance hitting a high of 600,000 barrels per day. Nonetheless, October also recorded a spike in Russian crude oil residue imports to India, reaching 170,000 barrels per day and expected to set a record high of 200,000 barrels per day in December.New Delhi Wealth Management

Despite a spate of attacks in the posing risks to shipping, India's crude oil trade, particularly from Russia, has not been affected to date. The Red Sea route continues to be the preferred choice for transporting Russian crude to Indian refineries, with a significant volume of Russian oil, approximately 112 million barrels, currently held at sea. Of this, a substantial portion, around 43.7 million barrels, is destined for India, offering a buffer against potential supply disruptions.

As per S&P Global Commodity Insights, even with the potential for increased tensions in the Red Sea, there is no expected decrease in Russian oil volumes to India. Moreover, if competitive pricing prevails, Russian crude is projected to make up about 35%-45% of India's overall crude imports in the foreseeable future.

Kanpur Investment